The spring of the hottest ethylene industry is com

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The spring of ethylene industry is coming.

ethylene is the basic raw material of petrochemical industry. Ethylene output has become a symbol to measure the development level of a country's petrochemical industry. In recent years, with the rapid development of the national economy, the domestic ethylene industry has developed rapidly. At present, it has become the second largest ethylene production and consumption country in the world after the United States. Globally, naphtha is also the main raw material for ethylene production. Light hydrocarbon (ethane) raw materials are mainly used in the Middle East and North America, while naphtha is still the main raw material in China due to resource constraints. With the rise of the domestic coal chemical industry in recent years, the domestic capacity of coal (methanol) to ethylene, sample production and testing of olefins has reached about 20% of the total capacity of basic research, utilization research and technology development cooperation. The domestic ethylene industry has embarked on a characteristic road different from its international counterparts

from a global perspective, the launch of ethylene production capacity has obvious periodicity, which is generally divided into raw material driven and demand driven. For example, ethylene plants put into operation in the Middle East during 2007-2010 mainly benefited from low-cost ethane raw materials. At present, there is a shortage of ethane in the region, and most of the new plants are mainly naphtha or mixed cracking. Since the shale gas revolution in North America started in 2011, a large amount of cheap ethane has been brought. Ethylene cracking units in this region have been changed to ethane raw materials, and a large number of ethane cracking units have been built. The overall production time is concentrated in 2017-2020. The new ethylene production capacity in China is mainly driven by demand. During 2011-2017, due to high crude oil prices and weak demand for refined oil, the new production capacity is mainly coal (methanol) to olefins

according to statistics, by the end of 2017, the total domestic ethylene production capacity had reached about 24.3 million tons, an increase of 4% year-on-year; The output reached more than 18.2 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 2.4%. The annual ethylene import volume reached 2.16 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 30%. With the increasing market demand for ethylene derivatives such as polyethylene and ethylene glycol, the domestic demand for ethylene is growing steadily. In 2017, the apparent consumption of ethylene was about 20.37 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 4.8%; The equivalent consumption of ethylene is about 39million tons, and the equivalent gap is more than 20million tons. Ethylene and its derivatives are heavily dependent on imports

since this year, the commissioning of some new units will have a positive effect on the supply of ethylene, which is still the product standard. The 1.2 million ton ethylene plant of CNOOC and shell phase II has been put into operation, which will greatly improve the supply gap in South China. By the end of the year, 450000 tons of Yanchang Petroleum Yan'an energy and 300000 tons of Jilin Cornell ethylene plants are planned to be put into operation successively, and the annual new capacity is expected to be about 2million tons. Starting from 2019, China will welcome 2 Hydraulic universal testing machine: this kind of machine is often used to build ethylene plants in the burst period of production. According to incomplete statistics, by the end of 2020, China plans to have more than 14 million tons of ethylene production capacity put into centralized production, including about 9million tons for the oil line and about 5.5 million tons for the coal (methanol) line. In addition, there are about 7million tons of light hydrocarbon (ethane) cracking projects, which are likely to be shelved in the short term due to the impact of the Sino US trade war. If the above-mentioned 14 million ton plant can be put into operation as scheduled, the shortage of domestic ethylene supply will be greatly improved

after several years of development, the consumption structure of ethylene in China has also changed. Linear low density polyethylene (LLDPE) accounts for about 27% of the total consumption, high density polyethylene (HDPE) accounts for about 26%, low density polyethylene (LDPE) accounts for about 11%, ethylene glycol accounts for about 11%, ethylene oxide accounts for about 9% and styrene accounts for about 8%. Among them, ethylene glycol, HDPE and LDPE have the lowest self-sufficiency rates, which are 34%, 49% and 53% respectively. The contradiction between supply and demand is prominent

in general, with the further opening of domestic crude oil import policy and the maturity of coal chemical technology, more private enterprises began to enter the ethylene industry, and the overall supply pattern of ethylene began to show positive changes. The large-scale refining and chemical integration project brings cost and technical impact due to large-scale and diversified raw materials, while the coal (methanol) to olefin project also shows better cost and raw material advantages under the high crude oil price. The Chinese model of walking on two legs will bring new development opportunities to the ethylene industry. The spring of the ethylene industry is not far away

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